Credit Risk Manager, Portfolio Loss Forecasting

Contract Type:
Permanent | Full-Time

Location:

Bradford, Petersfield, London or Chatham

Working Pattern:
Hybrid (usually 1 day a week in the office).

We welcome part-time and flexible arrangements and will aim to match your current flexibility where possible.

• Holidays: 25 days (rising to 30) + buy/sell up to 5 days + swap up to 4 bank holidays.
• Pension:
  Up to 10% employer contribution.
• Family Leave:
  Enhanced maternity and 4 weeks’ paternity from day-one, shared parental leave, paid neonatal care leave and support for adoption and surrogacy.
• Fertility Support:
  Paid time off for fertility treatment and appointments, available to birth parents and partners, with confidential support and flexible adjustments where needed.
• Workations:
  Work abroad for up to 20 days a year in approved countries.
• Birthday Leave:
  Your birthday off—paid.
• Volunteering: 2 paid volunteering days.
• Learning:
  Access to Linked In Learning for all colleagues.
• Financial Wellbeing:
  Free Snoop Premium subscription.
• Healthcare:
  Self-pay Denplan & optional Private Medical Insurance.

As Credit Risk Manager, Portfolio Loss Forecasting, you will be responsible for delivering portfolio credit risk loss forecasting across our portfolios. You will lead the development and ongoing enhancement of forecasting models and portfolio analysis, ensuring forecasts are accurate, well understood, and fit for business planning. You will also play a key role in explaining the story behind the numbers, partnering closely with Finance, Risk and Commercial teams to align assumptions, validate outputs, and support strong decision‑making.

Reporting to:
Head of Portfolio Analysis and Loss Forecasting

• Drive the ongoing enhancement of robust loss forecasting models for each portfolio to accurately predict credit losses.
• Execute and deliver regular loss forecasts across credit portfolios, using recent performance, credit quality and risk exposure.
• Ensure credit strategy changes are reflected in loss forecast expectations, with clear rationale and supporting analysis.
• Monitor and track forecast performance and model accuracy on an ongoing basis across credit card and vehicle finance portfolios.
• Produce regular and ad‑hoc reporting on loss forecasts and key risk metrics.
• Present findings, insights and recommendations to senior management, key stakeholders and (where needed) external bodies.
• Partner with Finance and Commercial teams to support end‑to‑end understanding and validation of forecasts.
• Collaborate with cross‑functional teams (including Risk, Finance, Product and Operations) to support effective portfolio management.
• Lead, coach and mentor a team of analysts, creating development opportunities through regular support and knowledge sharing.
• Set clear objectives and priorities for the team, balancing delivery needs with longer‑term improvement.
• Build and maintain strong working relationships with other Credit Risk teams and second‑line Risk management.
• Maintain strong systems and controls to reduce errors in complex forecasts and processes.
• Support Group‑wide planning by delivering consistent and predictable credit loss forecasts that feed budgets and financial plans.

• 5+ years’ experience in portfolio analysis, credit risk management and/or loss forecasting within consumer credit.
• Strong understanding of credit products and risk drivers, ideally across credit cards, loans and vehicle finance.
• Strong analytical and quantitative skills, including statistical modelling and data analysis tools such as SAS, R and/or Python.
• Experience monitoring model performance, validating outputs, and improving forecasting approaches over time.
• Confident communicator who can translate complex analysis into a clear business narrative for technical and non-technical audiences.
• Strong stakeholder management skills, with experience working across Finance, Risk, Operations and Commercial teams.
• People leadership experience, including leading teams of analysts, setting direction, coaching and developing capability.
• Strong problem‑solving skills, including identifying trends, root causes, and practical actions in response to portfolio performance changes.
• Familiarity with regulatory requirements and best practice in portfolio analysis and loss forecasting.

Vanquis Bank is an Equal Opportunity Employer. We value everyone’s unique background, identity and experience, and we’re committed to a workplace where all colleagues can thrive. If you need any adjustments or support during the recruitment process, please contact  and we’ll be happy to help.