Capacity Planning & Forecasting Lead

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About the role
The Capacity Planning & Forecasting Lead is accountable for leading the development, ownership and continuous improvement of robust, data-driven capacity plans and demand forecasts across Helpdesk and Operations. This role owns the production of accurate short, medium and long-term forecasts, the integrity of capacity models, and the delivery of insight that enables confident operational, financial and commercial decision-making. Working under the direction of the Senior Manager - Enterprise Capacity Planning & Insights, the Lead ensures supply and demand are aligned through disciplined planning, rigorous analysis, proactive stakeholder engagement and clear governance of planning assumptions.

This role is critical in enabling efficient and effective operations, ensuring resource plans support service performance, financial discipline, cost efficiency and wider commercial objectives.

Key Responsibilities
1. Capacity Planning & Resource Modelling
Lead the design, ownership and maintenance of operational capacity plans across Helpdesk & Operations, ensuring plans are robust, governed and aligned to demand, service commitments and business priorities.
Own the balance between service performance, resource availability, cost efficiency and commercial outcomes, ensuring capacity recommendations are evidence-based and financially responsible.
Set out clear hiring, redeployment and resource recommendations across operational roles, influencing senior stakeholders through clear rationale, scenario modelling and commercial impact assessment.
Track actual versus planned recruitment, attrition, shrinkage and productivity assumptions, providing early warning of risks to service, cost or delivery outcomes.
Continuously refine planning assumptions, productivity inputs and model design to improve accuracy, resilience and confidence in workforce plans.
2. Demand Forecasting & Analytics
Own and produce short, medium and long-term demand forecasts using appropriate statistical techniques, operational insight and workforce planning methodologies.
Lead forecast accuracy management through structured validation, back-testing, variance tracking and continuous model refinement.
Lead detailed planned versus actual analysis, identifying material variances, underlying drivers and the financial or operational implications of changes in demand.
Challenge and govern forecasting assumptions, using root cause analysis to improve precision, explain movements and support credible decision-making.
Translate demand trends, risks and opportunities into clear recommendations for operational leaders, Finance, Change and senior stakeholders.
Design, own and communicate recovery plans when service levels, demand, capacity or cost performance move outside agreed expectations.
3. Workforce Management & Planning
Lead the effective use of Workforce Management systems, ensuring planning data, assumptions and outputs are accurate, consistent and trusted by operational teams.
Proactively identify emerging trends, operational pressures or unforeseen risks, leading timely interventions to protect service, cost and colleague capacity outcomes.
Drive continuous improvement in WFM tools, planning processes and governance, ensuring outputs are scalable, repeatable and aligned to enterprise planning standards.
Identify efficiency opportunities, operational leakage and areas for optimisation, quantifying the service, cost and commercial benefit of proposed actions.
Lead cross-functional planning conversations with Operations, Finance, Change and senior stakeholders, ensuring plans are understood, challenged appropriately and translated into action.
4. Financial Planning & Forecasting
Lead workforce input into budget planning, reforecasting and quarterly financial forecasts for Helpdesk & Operations, ensuring assumptions are transparent, evidence-based and operationally credible.
Own the alignment between capacity plans, demand forecasts, service commitments and financial targets, escalating risks and trade-offs with clear recommendations.
Deliver cost optimisation…