Post Doctoral Fellow

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture is a state wide campus, with faculty based on University campuses, at Research and Extension Centers and in every Arkansas county. It consists of the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station (AES) and the Arkansas Cooperative Extension Service (CES), and is home to more than 1400 employees. The Division was established in 1959 and is headed by the Vice-President for Agriculture.

The Division headquarters is located in Little Rock with the rest of the University of Arkansas System Administration. As an employer, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers a vibrant work environment and a workplace culture that promotes a healthy work-life balance.

Division of Agriculture of the University of Arkansas

Researchers

No

Fixed Duration of Project/Grant (Fixed Term)

No

AEAB | Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

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• Interactive Hedging Tool Hedging decision tools for a broad range of row crop and livestock farm operations will be developed, and the tools will be made freely available from the Fryar Center website. Locking in profitable margins is a key aspect of farmer marketing, and the decision tools will guide farmers on what margins they may expect to earn based on a range of hedging strategies and market price outcomes.
  
  Farmers will enter key variables through a user-friendly interface related to their expected outputs and inputs and their choice of marketing strategy. For example, a row crop farmer would enter information about their planted acres, expected yields, production costs/acre, storage costs, and basis levels in their local markets. Based on these variables, the decision tools will generate a range of potential profit margins and the associated likelihood of each outcome.
  
  The tools will generate different market pricing outcomes based on current and historical prices under various supply and demand conditions. The tools will help farmers make informed risk-return marketing decisions under different market pricing scenarios.
• Monthly USDA report summaries USDA reports (WASDE, grain stocks, cattle on feed) provide important pricing information based on current supply and demand conditions across commodity markets. Industry (from farmers to end users) uses this information to make hedging and marketing decisions. Our monthly report summary will provide an in-depth overview of how supply and demand numbers have changed since the previous report and how they compare with the market’s expectations (taken from Bloomberg) before the report’s release.
  
  It will summarize futures price and calendar spread price movements based on the latest supply and demand picture. The report will also provide a Fryar forecast of future price ranges that markets will likely trade at (broken down into high, mid, and low ranges). The forecasts will be generated by stocks to use models and the options market’s implied volatility.
  
  These price ranges will provide useful information for industry to make hedging and marketing decisions and can be used as inputs for Fryar Center hedging decision tools. The report will also give general hedging advice based on current market conditions, and it will highlight profitable pricing conditions (i.e., when new crop futures are higher than national average production costs per…