Revenue Forecasting Specialist

Join Our Team at DFTO

DFTO is the government's public sector rail owning group. Its purpose is to bring all currently privately-owned train operators into public ownership in advance of the creation of Great British Railways in 2027 - and deliver improvements in the here and now by unifying and integrating train operations under common public ownership.

DFTO has over 30,000 employees, runs over 11,000 services a day and delivers over 930 million customer journeys across its networks every year. 7,000 people joined the railway family in the last year

Major improvements are being delivered by DFTO train operators (TOCs) that are already under public ownership - these are LNER, Northern, Trans Pennine Express (TPE), Southeast, South Western Railway (SWR), c2c, Greater Anglia, WM Trains, GTR and Chiltern.

We work closely with the DfT but operate independently with our own governance and leadership teams. Our priority is ensuring efficient, dependable rail services for everyone.

Help shape the future of Britain's railway and the forecasting capability of Great British Railways.

This is a rare opportunity to influence not only the future revenue outlook of Britain's railway but also the forecasting framework that will support the transition to Great British Railways. As the industry evolves, robust forecasting will be critical to informing commercial strategy, government funding decisions and investment choices.

You will play a key role in developing the analytical approaches and forecasting methodologies that underpin decision-making across the future railway. Working within the Customer & Revenue Growth team, you will help develop and maintain the industry's revenue forecasting capability, providing insight into how passenger demand, economic conditions, fares policy, operational performance and commercial initiatives will affect future revenue.

Your analysis will be used by senior leaders across government, train operators and Network Rail to support decisions worth billions of pounds and help shape the long-term financial sustainability of the railway.

• Support the production, maintenance and communication of national rail revenue forecasts.
• Maintain and develop the National Industry Revenue Model and associated forecasting tools.
• Analyse the key drivers of rail revenue performance and identify risks and opportunities.
• Assess the impact of economic conditions, consumer behaviour, operational performance, disruption and severe weather on revenue outcomes.
• Develop forecasting assumptions, scenarios and sensitivities for industry planning exercises.
• Evaluate the revenue impact of commercial initiatives, business plans and policy interventions.
• Provide ad-hoc forecasting and commercial analysis to support strategic decision making.
• Work with train operators, Network Rail, government and consultants to improve forecasting methodologies.
• Help shape the future forecasting framework and analytical capability for Great British Railways.
• Present complex analysis and forecasting insights to senior stakeholders.

• Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with an ability to work with complex data and models.
• Advanced Excel skills and experience developing or maintaining forecasting models.
• Expert Powerpoint Skills, with experience of producing high quality presentations used effectively with a senior audience.
• Experience in forecasting, economics, analytics, finance, transport or a related field.
• Ability to challenge assumptions and assess uncertainty using evidence and judgement.
• Strong quantitative skills and an understanding of forecasting techniques.
• Excellent communication skills with the ability to explain technical concepts to non-technical audiences.
• Collaborative approach and ability to build relationships across organisations.
• Passion for improving forecasting methods and generating insight that influences decisions.
• Experience of rail, transport demand forecasting or commercial analysis would be advantageous but is not es

Duration: Fixed Term up to 31st March 2028 contract/secondment
Location: We currently have officesin London Waterloo, Leeds, Birmingham
Salary:up to £55,000
Closing date: 18th November 2026

DFTO currently have office locations in London, Birmingham and Leeds and individuals can be based from any of the three locations. Whilst we do offer hybrid working there are sometimes demands to…