Senior Fellow, Forecasting, Collective Intelligence and Strategic Risks

• Senior Fellow, Forecasting, Collective Intelligence and Strategic Risks

Location: London

Contract: Fixed-term, three years

Hours: Full-time

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is a defence and security think tank that has a deep understanding of regional geopolitics and geo-economics in a global context. Its international researchers provide best-in-class independent and impartial analysis and provide insights on strategic challenges and priorities to governments and the private sector. It is expert at bringing together national leaders and senior policymakers in foreign policy, defence and security;

promoting dialogue; and facilitating effective and influential bilateral and multilateral consultations.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is looking to recruit a Senior Fellow focussing on forecasting, collective intelligence and strategic risks to work in the Geo-economics and Strategy Programme.

• Provide methodological leadership for the forecasting platform, including on question design and scoring, overseeing development priorities with colleagues, and running AI and human forecasting where appropriate.
• Deliver research and published output under your own name, including online analysis, research papers and contributions towards IISS flagship products, ensuring rigorous standards.
• Convene a regular programme of workshops, briefings and dialogues to showcase findings, represent the IISS publicly as a speaker and credible expert, and translate outputs into formats such as briefings, podcasts and conference papers.
• Help develop the IISS approach to forecasting and collective intelligence methods through recruitment and management of junior colleagues, collaborating with IISS departments and the wider IISS network establishing a healthy production rhythm.
• Fundraise and build revenue generation, manage relationships with funders and partners, and convert research and pilots into sustained programmes. Where necessary, also collaborate effectively with IISS stakeholders in commercial and technology operations.

• Completion of a Master’s degree (or equivalent) in a relevant subject such as strategic studies, international security, economics, public policy, data science or a related field, OR equivalent professional experience in government, intelligence, industry, or a leading policy-research environment with responsibility for analytical delivery.
• Experience of research and analysis using the full range of open-source information, with strong judgement on source reliability and uncertainty, and an ability to translate evidence into clear probabilistic assessments for decision-makers.
• Experience working with, specifying requirements for, or contributing to digital platforms and data products, including collaboration with developers and vendors; managing datasets, tagging/taxonomy, and maintaining consistent data standards and auditability.
• Excellent command of spoken and written English, with a proven ability to brief senior stakeholders and write clearly to deadline. Additional languages desirable, particularly relevant to priority regions and open-source exploitation.
• Experience implementing appropriate governance for an externally facing platform, including information security and assurance expectations, and responsible AI use in analytical workflows.

Salary will be competitive and commensurate with knowledge and skills.

The IISS provides a full employment package.

Candidates should submit their applications by clicking the ‘Apply Now’ blue button above and follow the instructions to submit two documents:

• A cover letter outlining what skills and experience they can bring to the role, as well as salary expectations.
• A full Curriculum Vitae (resume), including details of two referees.

Candidates must be eligible to work in the UK. Unfortunately, we will be unable to provide visa sponsorship for this position. Due to the volume of expected applications, only those selected for interview will be contacted.

The deadline for receipt of applications is 19 February 2026.

The IISS is an equal opportunities employer.