Probabilistic Risk Assessment Analyst-Human Spaceflight; Remote

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Commercial Space Full Time Centennial, CO, US

2 days ago Requisition

Salary Range: $ To $ Annually

ARES Corporation seeks an experienced Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) lead or analyst to support Boeing and United Launch Alliance (ULA) on the Starliner human spaceflight program. This role focuses on quantitative risk assessment of the Starliner crew vehicle and Vulcan launch vehicle to evaluate crew risks (including Loss of Crew and Loss of Mission metrics) and to support FAA launch license applications under 14 CFR Part 450.

The selected candidate will perform and/or lead PRA activities across multiple customers, working closely with engineering, systems, safety, and reliability teams. The position requires the ability to independently develop and refine probabilistic models, interpret results for risk-informed decision-making, and communicate technical findings clearly to customers and senior stakeholders with minimal day-to-day oversight.

Work location: Well-qualified remote candidates will be considered. Candidates local to the Houston or Denver metro area willing to work a hybrid schedule are preferred.

Essential Functions:

• PRA Model Development and Quantification
  :
  Independently develop, update, and quantify probabilistic risk models for Starliner and Vulcan systems. Apply fault trees, event trees, and related techniques to assess failure scenarios, common-cause failures, and risk drivers contributing to Loss of Crew (LOC), Loss of Mission (LOM), and public risk metrics.
• Human Spaceflight and Launch Vehicle Risk Assessment
  :
  Perform integrated assessments covering vehicle systems, abort scenarios, ground and flight operations, and crew-related risks. Incorporate reliability data, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) where applicable, and uncertainty quantification (including epistemic and aleatory uncertainty).
• FAA Launch License Support
  :
  Support flight safety analyses and probability-of-failure assessments required for FAA Part 450 launch licensing. Contribute to expected casualty (E_C), probability of casualty (P_C), conditional expected casualty analyses, debris/risk assessments, and related documentation for Vulcan and associated missions.
• Standards and Process Compliance
  :
  Execute analyses consistent with NASA PRA guidance (e.g., NASA/SP
  - Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide), NPR 8705.5, human-rating requirements (NPR 8705.2 / NASA-STD-8719.29), and applicable commercial space and range safety practices.
• Customer and Engineering Engagement
  :
  Collaborate directly with Boeing, ULA, and other engineering teams to gather design data, failure modes, reliability inputs, and operational assumptions. Present results, risk drivers, sensitivity studies, and recommendations in technical reviews and customer forums.
• Documentation and Integration
  :
  Produce clear PRA reports, model documentation, uncertainty analyses, and risk summaries. Support integration with system safety (hazard analysis, FMEA/FMECA), reliability, and certification activities.

Desired

Qualifications:

• Demonstrated experience performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) or equivalent quantitative risk analysis on complex aerospace systems (launch vehicles, spacecraft, or high-reliability aircraft systems).
• Hands-on proficiency with PRA modeling techniques (fault trees, event trees, cut-set analysis, importance measures) and associated software tools (e.g., SAPHIRE, CAFTA, Risk Spectrum, or equivalent).
• Experience collecting, analyzing, and applying reliability and failure data; performing uncertainty analysis; and identifying risk drivers for decision support.
• Strong ability to engage engineering teams, extract technical information, and translate design and operational details into probabilistic models.
• Excellent technical writing and presentation skills, with the ability to explain quantitative risk results and assumptions to customers, management, and cross-functional teams.
• Ability to work independently across multiple customer efforts while maintaining technical rigor and accountability.
• Direct experience supporting human spaceflight programs (Commercial Crew, Starliner, Orion, Artemis, or similar) or crewed vehicle risk assessments.
• Experience with FAA Part 450 flight safety analysis, launch licensing, or range safety probabilistic…