ECONOMIST

The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity's mission is to strengthen Arizona’s workforce and economy.

Address: 1400 West Washington Street, Phoenix, Arizona 85007

Salary: $55,000.00 - $65,000.00 Annually

Grade: 22

Closing Date:
November 6, 2026

Under the direction of the Modeling & Forecasting Division Supervisor, this position serves as a technical analyst responsible for supporting quantitative modeling, dataset maintenance, and technical analysis. The primary focus of this role is leading the research, predictive modeling, database quality checks, and analytical support for Title IV Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) programs. Additionally, this position maintains programming code, supports short-term and long-term employment projections, and conducts quantitative research for special workforce projects.

This position may offer the ability to work remotely, within Arizona, based upon the department's business needs and continual meeting of expected performance measures.

The State of Arizona strives for a work culture that affords employees flexibility, autonomy, and trust. Across our many agencies, boards, and commissions, many State employees participate in the State’s Remote Work Program and are able to work remotely in their homes, in offices, and in hoteling spaces. All work, including remote work, should be performed within Arizona unless an exception is properly authorized in advance.

• Lead technical analysis and quantitative research into the operational workings and outcomes of VR programs. Develop predictive models, perform complex data cleaning, and execute database quality checks to support data integrity. Build data visualization tools and regularly present technical findings and reports to the Vocational Rehabilitation Director and agency leadership.
• Support the maintenance and enhancement the predictive models evaluating Title I adult services training programs and the statewide Workforce PELL initiative to estimate how participant demographics and local economic conditions impact outcomes. Maintain data files for the Applied Analysis Division to analyze participant enrollments, outcomes, and program characteristics. Collaborate with the Applied Analysis Division to identify partner needs and ensure evaluation data accurately informs training provider assessments.
• Serve as a project lead or core contributor on the AI Risk of Automation initiative to identify and calculate risk scores for various state occupations. Utilize advanced AI workflows to safely scan, extract, and properly categorize national AI‑related layoff events into standard Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) categories. Combine highly theoretical literature reviews with real-world event tracking and historical QCEW employment loss data to incorporate automation risks directly into official employment projections.
• Support the creation, update, and programming maintenance of the State's official Short-Term (ST) and Long-Term (LT) employment projections. Lead the development and maintenance of the UI Benefits Exhaustion Model using historical UI claimant demographics and environmental outcome records.
• Assist with the development, maintenance, and execution of SAS/Python programming scripts for internal data tools and database updates. Serve as an operational backup for critical internal processes. This includes assisting with database updates for monthly employment reports or executing automated extraction scripts when the lead or supervisor is unavailable.

Knowledge of:

• Extensive knowledge of econometrics, statistical modeling, predictive analytics, and forecasting…