Research Consultant: Syria study, Return Implications Host Economies

Please note the Final date to receive applications is November 20th. The consultancy is based in Syria/Remote

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Under this initiative, Prosper Global and UNDP are conducting “Return Implications for Host Economies”, a set of three country studies on Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The studies examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment in Lebanon and Jordan, and how returns shape the same dynamics in the main areas of return in Syria.

Each study will be led by a dedicated consultant. Findings from the three studies will be compared to identify common challenges, opportunities and areas of convergence, and to develop regional recommendations to support policy dialogue with host governments, the private sector and local actors, and to inform the planning of UN agencies, donors and humanitarian and development actors.

• Assess whether the skills and work experience of returnees from Lebanon and Jordan match local labor demand in the main areas of return, in which sectors and on what terms, and how returnees fare compared with residents and returning internally displaced people.

• Assess how returns have affected local prices, rents, housing availability and the supply of goods, and where demand is outrunning supply.

• Assess whether education, health, civil documentation and housing, land and property (HLP) services in areas of return can meet the added demand, and identify the main bottlenecks.

• Map the public, private, diaspora and donor investment reaching areas of return and what constrains it (for example access to banking, legal certainty, sanctions-related restrictions, property disputes or security).

• Document the economic ties that remain between returnees and Lebanon or Jordan, such as remittances, seasonal or circular work and cross-border trade; how residents view returns and their effect on local economic conditions; and what happens to returnees who cannot secure a livelihood.

• Develop country-level recommendations on measures (for example service planning, investment facilitation, support for civil documentation and HLP, and arrangements for cross-border work and trade) that could help areas of return absorb returnees in ways that benefit both returnees and residents, and contribute to the regional recommendations.

• Review published and ongoing studies on returns and the economies of areas of return in Syria, including work by UN agencies, the World Bank, ILO, research centers and NGOs, to confirm evidence gaps, avoid duplication and refine the research questions.

• Check data availability on labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows and returns, including the geographic level, period and access conditions of each source, and recommend which additional components are feasible (for example remote-sensing or mobility data, analysis of funding flows, or forward-looking scenarios).

• Select, with Syrian research partners, three to four areas of return (likely candidates include Dar’a, Rural Damascus, Homs, Aleppo and Idleb) based on UNHCR and IOM return data and on access and…