Consultant Research Analyst, Applied political economy and quantitative analysis - remote flexi

Location:

Remote, any location globally with availability for calls across multiple time zones. Position Status:
Short-term consultancy. Duration:
Approximately 20-25 days (exact scope to be confirmed at inception).

Reports To:

Director, Global Crisis Analysis. Final date to receive applications: 18 March.

Start Date:

Ideally week ending 20 March.

We are seeking an experienced analyst who combines applied political economy expertise with strong quantitative skills—specifically experience in price transmission modelling and/or econometric analysis—and who can translate complex economic findings into clear, operationally useful guidance for HDP practitioners. The analyst will design the economic transmission pathway framework, build and run commodity price transmission models across three conflict scenarios, conduct structured key informant interviews (including with country office staff) and produce all written outputs—country and sub‑regional snapshots, a cross‑cutting funding architecture analysis, and scenario‑differentiated HDP recommendations.

The report should present the findings in a clear and accessible way for a non‑technical audience that includes donors, policymakers and operational HDP actors.

• Design the economic transmission pathway framework, mapping how US‑Iran conflict shocks travel through key channels to HDP‑relevant outcomes across the Middle East, South Asia and East Africa.
• Develop a scenario architecture describing three distinct political‑economic states with qualitatively different HDP implications.
• Produce an inception note confirming the report outline, analytical approach, scenario definitions, case selection rationale and key informant engagement plan and planned visualisations.

• Design and run commodity price transmission models tracing the causal pathway from Hormuz disruption and oil price shocks through to food basket prices across all three scenarios, calibrated against comparable historical episodes.
• Produce scenario‑based food price forecasts with appropriate confidence intervals, using established price transmission frameworks applied to open‑source datasets (FEWS NET, WFP VAM, World Bank, IMF).
• As relevant, produce cash transfer value erosion estimates per case geography under each scenario, formatted for direct use by HDP programme teams.
• Document modelling methodology, data sources and limitations clearly for integration into the methodology section of the report.
• Produce data visualisations (transmission pathway diagrams, global transmission exposure maps, scenario price impact heat maps, cash value erosion charts, shock sequencing timelines, scenario comparison matrix).

• Produce analytical snapshots for each confirmed case geography, covering primary transmission channels, differential exposure across the three scenarios and specific operational implications for HDP actors.
• Conduct structured key informant interviews, including with Mercy Corps country office staff prior to drafting each snapshot, and synthesise and quality‑assure KI input.
• Produce case country scorecard visualisations and vulnerability maps, coordinating with GIS/visualisation/design team members to ensure accuracy.

• Produce a cross‑cutting section on the global HDP funding architecture under conflict conditions and integrate it into the scenario framework.
• Draft scenario‑differentiated recommendations across programme design and modality choices; resource allocation and geographic prioritisation; funding and advocacy.
• Draft a concise executive summary (~2 pages) suitable for senior HDP leadership and donor audiences.

• Actively learn about safeguarding and integrate it into their work.
• Practice the values of Mercy Corps, respecting the dignity and well‑being of participants and fellow team members.
• Encourage openness and communication; report any concerns using available reporting mechanisms.

• Advanced degree in economics,…