Senior Manager, Portfolio Analytics & Forecasting

At Flagship Financial Group, we strive to make a positive impact on our customers' lives through responsible auto financing and on our employees' careers through continuous learning and advancement opportunities. Following our recent acquisition and the appointment of a new CEO, we are entering an exciting period of transformation, shifting toward a high-growth, data-driven, and operationally excellent future.

We are seeking a Senior Manager, Portfolio Analytics & Forecasting, to lead portfolio performance analytics and loss forecasting efforts that help shape Flagship's view of portfolio risk and business performance. Reporting to the VP, Performance and Servicing Analytics, this role partners closely with Risk, Finance, Servicing, Treasury, and executive leadership to transform portfolio data into actionable insights, reliable forecasts, and strategic recommendations.

This position plays a critical role in helping the organization identify emerging risks, evaluate opportunities, and make informed business decisions as we continue to grow and evolve.

• Lead the development, maintenance, and enhancement of portfolio loss forecasting models, including delinquency, default, loss frequency, loss severity, and recovery forecasts.
• Own the monthly loss forecasting process, including forecast generation, variance analysis, reporting, and business partner communication.
• Monitor portfolio performance across vintages, credit segments, securitization pools, and risk tiers to identify meaningful trends, opportunities, and emerging risks.
• Establish and maintain key portfolio performance metrics, including delinquency, roll rates, charge-offs, recoveries, and prepayment behavior.
• Deliver clear, concise reporting and dashboards that provide actionable insights to business leaders and executive stakeholders.
• Conduct rigorous quality control of forecasts, analyses, and reporting outputs by validating data, stress-testing assumptions, and investigating anomalies.
• Partner with Finance, Treasury, Accounting, Risk, and Servicing teams to support planning, valuation, financial reporting, and strategic decision-making.
• Utilize SQL and modern analytics tools to extract, transform, and analyze large and complex datasets.
• Incorporate macroeconomic trends, stress-testing scenarios, and qualitative factors into portfolio performance assessments and forecasts.
• Support servicing analytics initiatives that improve customer outcomes, operational performance, and portfolio profitability.
• Document forecasting methodologies, assumptions, and procedures to support governance, audit, and model validation activities.
• Lead complex analytical projects independently while providing technical guidance and mentorship to analysts and cross-functional partners.

You excel at translating large volumes of data into meaningful business insights and recommendations that influence strategic decisions.

You possess exceptional attention to detail and instinctively validate results, challenge assumptions, and ensure accuracy before information reaches stakeholders.

You can navigate ambiguity, identify root causes, and focus on the factors that truly drive business outcomes.

You communicate complex analytical concepts clearly and effectively, enabling leaders across the organization to make informed decisions with confidence.

You embrace modern analytics tools and emerging technologies, applying sound judgment to maximize their effectiveness while maintaining high standards of quality and rigor.

• 8+ years of experience in risk analytics, portfolio analytics, loss forecasting, quantitative analysis, or related functions within consumer finance or financial services.
• Demonstrated success leading complex analytical initiatives and translating quantitative findings into business recommendations.
• Experience building, maintaining, or enhancing forecasting, portfolio performance, or predictive models.
• Strong experience working with large-scale data warehouse environments and analytical datasets.
• Experience creating executive-level reporting, dashboards, KPIs, and business performance metrics.
• Consumer auto finance experience is strongly preferred.
• Experience with macroeconomic analysis, stress testing, CECL, loan valuation, or allowance methodologies is a plus.
• Experience supporting servicing analytics or portfolio optimization initiatives is…