Consultant National Climate Vulnerability Mapping of Health Service Delivery Systems

Background

UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is the United Nations’ population and development agency that expands the possibilities for women and young people to fulfill their potential. The climate crisis is impacting all dimensions of demography and public health. The United Nations Population Fund emphasizes the linkage between population dynamics and climate change as essential for working on policies that address this issue through reproductive health and gender equality, including reproductive rights, while safeguarding the environment.

As a result, UNFPA aims to support governments and partners in the design of people‑centered climate change solutions and enabling communities to adapt by placing women and girls at the center of these efforts.

Rising global temperatures directly correlate with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes, such as increased risks of preterm births, stillbirths and miscarriages. A 1°C increase during the week preceding delivery was associated with a 6% increase in stillbirth risk during the warm season (May–September). This incidence translates to almost 4 additional stillbirths per 10,000 births for each 1°C increase. High correlation exists between climate change and male and female infertility increases.

Indirectly, climate‑induced disasters disrupt access to essential health services, menstrual hygiene and clean water.

Like the global pattern, Türkiye is increasingly vulnerable to the multi‑faceted impacts of the climate crisis. As a Mediterranean basin country, it faces increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves, prolonged droughts, wildfires, and shifting agricultural patterns. According to the Turkish State Meteorological Services (TSMS), 2025 was one of the hottest years on record in Türkiye, with an average temperature of 15.1°C, 1.2°C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the fifth‑hottest year in the past 55 years.

UNFPA aims to provide robust evidence to decision makers on how climate change affects women’s health and fertility dynamics in Türkiye. The findings should inform policy and strategic planning, providing actionable insights to guide effective and impactful interventions.

The purpose of this consultancy is to conduct National Climate Vulnerability Mapping of Health Service Delivery Systems, a geospatial analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) data to assess the vulnerability of healthcare infrastructure to climate stressors (extreme heat, humidity, etc.), aimed at identifying high‑risk hotspot areas in Turkey and providing policy recommendations.

During the consultancy period, the consultant is expected to analyze and provide a geospatial visualization of the threats posed by climate change to essential healthcare infrastructure. By correlating infrastructure coordinates with climate stressors recorded over the past 10–15 years, the assessment will establish statistically significant vulnerabilities and identify high‑risk hotspot areas that require strategic adaptation in provinces or regions of Turkey.

Primary variables for analysis include:

• Spatial infrastructure data: GIS‑based data of health service provision units located in environmentally risky areas such as extreme heat, increased humidity, flood zones or high‑risk wildfire areas.
• Service utilization data:
  Reproductive health service usage and related capacity data such as hospital admission rates.
• Climate exposure data:
  Climate stressors including frequency of extreme heat days, drought severity, increased humidity, floods and wildfires to measure exposure to climate change.

The consultant is encouraged to propose additional relevant variables that could enhance the model of the analysis.

Conduct a geospatial analysis to cross‑reference climate stressors—such as extreme heat, drought or floods—with health indicators and the location of health service provision units. This quantitative analysis aims to pinpoint statistically significant vulnerabilities and identify high‑risk hotspot regions in Turkey where reproductive health outcomes are most severely threatened.

Primary data on healthcare…