Actuary II Forecasting

Date:
Aug 21, 2026

Location:

AUSTIN, TX

Join the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) and be part of a team committed to creating a positive impact in the lives of fellow Texans. At HHSC, your contributions matter, and we support you at each stage of your life and work journey. Our comprehensive benefits package includes 100% paid employee health insurance for full-time eligible employees, a defined benefit pension plan, generous time off benefits, numerous opportunities for career advancement and more.

Explore more details on the Benefits of Working at HHS webpage.

Functional

Title:

Actuary II Forecasting Job Title: Actuary II Agency: Health & Human Services Comm Department: Forecasting Posting Number: 20408 Closing Date: 11/19/2026 Posting Audience: Internal and External Occupational Category: Computer and Mathematical Salary Range: $6,000.00 - $7,600.00 Pay Frequency: Monthly Salary Group: TEXAS-B-23 Shift: Day Telework: Eligible for Telework Travel: Up to 5%
Regular/Temporary: Regular Full Time/Part Time: Full time FLSA Exempt/Non-Exempt: Exempt

Facility

Location:


Job Location City: AUSTIN Job Location Address: 4601 W GUADALUPE ST Other Locations:
MOS Codes: No military equivalent

The Actuary II (Forecaster) plays an important role on the Health and Human Services Forecasting Team, with assignments ranging from forecasting to providing critical support of forecasting for various HHS program, including Medicaid Acute/Long-Term Services and Supports, Vendor Drug, Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF). Working with other forecasters and HHS program staff and team members, the Forecaster will perform complex and interesting statistical and research functions with moderate supervision from the Team Lead.

The Forecaster is responsible for the initial run of all forecasts from their area and will verify and maintain the integrity of data used in forecasting and reporting for their area. The Forecaster position requires moderate judgment, with moderate latitude to make recommendations on data issues and forecasts. The successful candidate will balance sound actuarial, statistical, and scientific judgment with logical decisions to make recommendations to the team.

The Forecasting Team has proven to be successful operating in a hybrid In-Office/Telework environment. The regular schedule is 80% Telework and 20% in-office, subject to temporary adjustment based on work needs. This is an excellent opportunity for someone looking to build their career in a predictive analytics setting, including for a recent graduate or someone who is looking to start their career in forecasting.

Under the direction of the manager/team lead, the Forecaster develops complex statistical models, such as time series models, using SAS or other software, including Excel, to forecast HHS programs and evaluate the performance of such models (30%). The Forecaster maintains and updates complex spreadsheets on a continual basis and identifies opportunities for improvement (30%). The Forecaster pulls and analyzes historical data on a monthly basis to identify and upscale anomalies and to ensure appropriateness for use in forecasting (15%).

The Forecaster provides reports to management, the Legislative Budget Board, and others, on a monthly or quarterly basis, on the performance of models, as well as trends seen in the data (10%). Performs ad-hoc queries and runs simulations on request (10%). Other duties as assigned (5%).

• Strong analytical skills with experience in data analysis and/or statistical modeling.
• Knowledge of statistical software (such as SAS or R) and/or forecasting software.
• Experience with Excel, including linking multiple worksheets and use of pivot tables.
• Strong attention to detail and the ability to work independently.
• Excellent communication and collaboration skills.

N/A

• Graduation from a 4-year college or university with major coursework in a relevant field, such as mathematics/statistics/economics or any degree that included…