Scientist, Plume Modeling and Forecasting

Sunlight reflection may be the only available option, alongside dramatic emissions reductions, adaptation, and rapid scaling of carbon removal, to rapidly limit many climate impacts over the coming decades. But we don’t know nearly enough about it to make a scientifically-informed decision about potential deployment – and we’re not on a trajectory for rapid, legitimate decision making.

Reflective is a global, non-profit research organization aiming to radically accelerate the pace of sunlight reflection research. We equip the world with the data and tools needed to make informed decisions about sunlight reflection, fast enough to matter.

Reflective studies stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) through modeling and, where the science requires it, by assessing the feasibility of small-scale outdoor experiments. Our modeling work includes AIDE-SAI, a linked set of machine-learning emulators that simulates SAI end to end, from stratospheric circulation through aerosol microphysics to radiation. Both the modeling framework and experiment feasibility assessment require better representation of plume evolution at scales our current global tools do not resolve: the global emulators only carry injected material once it has spread across a grid box, while a field study would need to forecast where a plume is and how it dilutes over days to weeks.

As Reflective’s Scientist for Plume Modeling and Forecasting, you’ll own that scale. You’ll lead plume forecasting for balloon-based tracer campaigns run with external partners, which test forecasting methods without any aerosol release, and build Reflective’s own forecasting capability out to the 24- to 72-hour horizons a field study would require. You’ll run plume-resolving simulations from release through dispersion and turn the results into dilution rates, an effective source term, and a parameterization the global framework can use.

Should a field study proceed, you’ll serve as mission scientist.

The role sits between the multi-scale team and the experiment team and reports to Reflective’s Head of Research, Marianna Linz. You’ll work daily with the OSSE Senior Scientist, who owns observing-system design and parameter estimation and runs that work from your plume simulations; the In-Situ Observing Lead and instrument specialists, who own the instruments and rely on you to tell them where to look;

the experiment operations lead, who owns aircraft contracting, shipping, permitting, and in-country operations; and Reflective’s external forecasting and modeling partners.

• Lead plume forecasting for balloon-based tracer campaigns run with external partners, working within the partner’s data assimilation and forecasting process while developing in-house capabilities. These campaigns test forecasting methods and are distinct from the potential aerosol microphysics experiment.
• Develop and evaluate plume forecasting capabilities over the 24- to 72-hour horizons a potential field study would require, documenting performance limits and their implications for feasibility.
• Quantify forecast uncertainty well enough to plan against it: where the ensemble spread puts the plume, how that spread grows with lead time, and what it implies for search patterns and instrument settings.
• Translate forecast results into requirements for the observing team, including viewing geometry, altitude, timing, and expected plume extent for daytime visualization systems.
• Model detailed plume evolution to support numerical experiments that test candidate observing suites and sampling cadences at realistic density and instrument fidelity.
• Verify forecasts from each tracer campaign against what was observed and report plainly where they failed.
• Own Reflective’s…