PhD Position Strengthening Mortgage Portfolio Resilience to Physical Climate Risks

Job Overview

Join our TU Delft team to explore how physical climate risks reshape house prices and ripple into mortgage portfolios, and help make homeowners and lenders more resilient to climate hazards.

Real estate is a key foundation of global wealth and has long been viewed as a safe asset. For most people, buying a home is the largest financial investment of their lifetime. Physical climate risks such as floods, droughts, storms, and wildfires challenge that assumption. Conventional, backward‑looking climate risk assessments capture direct damages but overlook indirect effects such as value depreciation and asset stranding.

In a climate‑affected future, the value of exposed properties may structurally change, challenging the financial health of both homeowners and the financial sector that holds their mortgages.

This fully funded 4‑year PhD project asks whether, where and when local property damage from physical climate risks systematically harms homeowners (micro level) and could scale up into portfolio‑wide mortgage defaults for lenders (macro level). The empirical focus is the Netherlands, with two concrete hazards: flooding and drought‑induced foundation damage to homes. Focusing on diverse ‘climate risk owners’, this PhD project will explore how different risk mitigation instruments help reduce inequalities and overall damages.

Methodologically, the project will rely on spatially‑explicit computational Agent‑Based Models (ABMs) of housing markets, combined with stakeholder workshops and a survey. Building on existing models (such as the RHEA ABM and the Bank of England ABM), you will design and advance ABMs that combine climate projections (KNMI, PBL, Klimaateffectatlas) with behavioural and market dynamics, to assess the climate‑mortgage‑property value nexus. The aim is to trace how shifting perceptions of physical climate risk work their way into property values, and onward into the financial position of homeowners and lenders, and to weigh the strategies that could strengthen resilience on both sides.

This modelling is complemented by statistical and econometric data analysis, engagement with relevant stakeholders, and a tailored homeowners survey.

• Design and advance ABMs to incorporate climate projections, behavioural, and market dynamics.

• Conduct statistical and econometric analysis of climate‑mortgage data.

• Facilitate stakeholder workshops and develop a homeowners survey.

• Engage with the financial sector and public institutions to translate research findings into practice.

• Collaborate with a multidisciplinary team spanning computational modelling, behavioural research, and climate‑risk analysis.

• Demonstrable prior experience with agent‑based modelling (ABM). This is a core requirement for the position.
• Master’s degree in Economics, Spatial/Environmental/Financial Economics, Computational Science, Complex Systems, Geography, Engineering & Policy Analysis, or a closely related field.
• Strong programming skills in a scientific language (Python, Julia, etc.).
• Experience with statistical and/or econometric data analysis.
• Ability to work with spatial data/GIS (asset).
• Domain interest in housing and mortgage markets, climate‑risk pricing, financial stability, or coupled social‑environmental systems (advantage).
• Willingness to engage with financial‑sector and policy stakeholders, and to contribute to survey design.
• Solid problem‑solving skills and capacity to take initiative.
• Fluent written and spoken English.

Doctoral candidates will be offered a 4‑year period of employment, in the form of two contracts: an initial 1.5‑year contract with a mid‑term progress assessment, followed by a 2.5‑year contract assuming satisfactory performance.

Salary and benefits are in accordance with the Collective Labour Agreement for Dutch Universities, ranging from €3059 to €3881 gross per month, depending on the year of the contract (full‑time, 38 hours). Additional benefits include an 8 % holiday allowance, an end‑of‑year bonus of 8.3 %, discounts on health insurance, and a monthly work‑costs contribution. Flexible work schedules may be arranged.

Our university is committed to equal opportunity and welcomes applications from all qualified candidates, regardless of gender, age, ethnicity, nationality, disability, or any other protected characteristic.