Manager, Vaccine Forecasting

Job Description

Position title:

Manager, Vaccine Forecasting
Contract type / duration:
Temporary - as soon as possible until 15 March 2027

Location:

Geneva
Department:
Vaccine Programmes & Markets (VPM)
Team:
Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management (VFSM)

Reports To:

Head, Vaccine Forecasting
N° of positions supervised (if applicable): 0
Career Step: 3

The Manager, Vaccine Forecasting sits within the Vaccine Forecasting and Supply Management team in the Vaccine Programmes & Markets department. The role works closely with Market Shaping, Vaccine Programmes, Finance, and country delivery colleagues, and engages externally with UNICEF Supply Division and other partners involved in Gavi-supported vaccine programmes. Its core purpose is to lead forecasting for an assigned portfolio of vaccine programmes so that demand, supply, price, and cost projections support clear, timely, and well-informed operational and strategic decision-making.

Note:

The essential functions listed in this section are not exhaustive of the job responsibilities; other duties may be assigned consistently with the department needs.

• Manage forecasting for a designated portfolio of vaccine programmes, producing demand, supply, price, and cost projections that inform operational planning and strategic decisions.
• Develop, maintain, and continuously improve vaccine forecasting models and supporting documentation to ensure forecasts are transparent, robust, and fit for decision‑making.
• Coordinate the collection, validation, and integration of programme inputs into forecast updates, ensuring alignment across vaccine‑specific forecasts and overall Gavi forecasting deliverables.
• Generate and interpret forecast scenarios, communicate implications clearly, and respond to analysis requests from internal and external stakeholders to support timely decisions.
• Monitor actuals against forecasts for selected vaccines, highlighting forecast accuracy, key risks, and issues that may affect programme performance, supply continuity, or financial planning.
• Provide forecasting expertise to vaccine working groups and country planning processes, advising on dose quantification and helping resolve issues such as supply‑demand imbalances and manufacturer disruptions.
• Contribute to portfolio‑wide forecasting activities and core team enablement, including regular cross‑vaccine updates, development of standard operating procedures, KPI updates, and continuity of support across the sub‑team.

• Typically 5–7 years of experience in forecasting, supply planning, or demand planning roles, ideally within vaccines, pharmaceuticals, global health, public health, social impact, or FMCG environments.
• Experience working with programme, operational, and financial data from multiple sources, including data collection, reconciliation, quality control, analysis, and use in decision‑making.
• Experience designing, building, and maintaining forecasting models and tools, with exposure to both operational and longer‑term forecasting needs.
• Experience supporting strategic and operational planning, gained in settings such as management consulting, product management, or comparable applied analytical roles.
• Experience working across multiple stakeholders and functions, including collaboration with programme, market, finance, and external partner counterparts in complex planning environments.

Essential:
University degree in economics, finance, engineering, statistics, or another relevant quantitative discipline.

• Technical skill — Advanced: Forecasting methods, including quantitative statistical approaches and qualitative expert‑driven modelling, applied to vaccine, supply, demand, price, and cost projections.
• Technical skill — Advanced: Forecast model design and management, including building, maintaining, documenting, and improving models used for operational and strategic decision‑making.
• Technical skill — Expert: Excel‑based modelling, including advanced formulas, pivot tables, sensitivity and scenario analysis, structured model design, and macros.
• Functional skill — Advanced: Data integration and…