Senior Director - Business Development Commercial Assesments

At Lilly, the work is demanding because patients are waiting. We unite caring with discovery to help make life better for people around the world, knowing that every decision, every detail, and every day matters. Headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, our over 50,000 employees around the globe take on complex challenges to discover and deliver life-changing medicines, strengthen how health is understood and managed, and support the communities we serve.

This is hard, urgent, selfless work-but it's work worth doing. If you're driven by purpose and ready to bring your best to work that truly matters for patients, we invite you to join us.

** Senior Director, Business Development Forecasting & Analytics*
* ** Corporate Business Development | Reports to VP, Corporate Development and BD Strategy*
* The Role:

This is not a forecast-maintenance role. We're looking for someone who builds conviction - who can walk into an unfamiliar therapeutic area, do the primary work, and produce a commercially defensible point of view where little internal precedent exists. You'll be the person in the room who has done the work and can stand behind it.

Reporting to the VP of Corporate Development and BD Strategy, you'll lead end-to-end commercial assessment for licensing, acquisition, and partnership opportunities across markets new or adjacent to Lilly's current portfolio - and build the forecasting infrastructure that raises the quality of BD analytics across the organization.

White Space Assessment & Market Intelligence

Lead commercial assessments from early landscape scoping through full deal-stage forecasting, with a clear and defensible POV at each stage

Rapidly develop substantive expertise in unfamiliar therapeutic areas - synthesizing epidemiology, treatment algorithms, competitive dynamics, payer landscapes, and emerging clinical data

Proactively size white space opportunities before formal deal processes begin; track signals across pipelines, regulatory trends, and payer policy to anticipate where markets are heading

Market Research Leadership

Design and lead primary research programs (qualitative and quantitative) with physicians, payers, patients, and channel partners - especially where secondary data is thin

Commission and critically evaluate third-party research; translate external deliverables into actionable commercial insight

Build Lilly's institutional knowledge base in new markets through documented findings, assumptions, and forecast rationale that persist beyond individual deals

Forecasting Model Development

Build flexible, reusable forecasting models with modular architecture, shared assumptions, and clear documentation

Deploy approaches suited to data-scarce environments: analogue models, epidemiology-driven patient flow frameworks, expert elicitation, and scenario trees

Model the full commercial picture - uptake trajectories, competitive erosion, pricing and access assumptions, channel dynamics, lifecycle scenarios, and risk-adjusted probability of success

Go-to-Market & Channel Strategy

Evaluate innovative commercial approaches - outcomes-based contracting, risk-sharing structures, novel launch sequencing - and assess their viability in new market entries

Analyze channel architecture trade-offs (specialty pharmacy, buy-and-bill, direct-to-patient, GPO/IDN) and their impact on revenue, access, and deal valuation

BD Partnership & Executive Influence

Serve as the commercial analytics partner to BD leadership from initial screening through due diligence, term sheet development, and integration planning

Present forecasts to senior executives with the confidence to defend assumptions, acknowledge uncertainty honestly, and make clear recommendations - not just ranges

Engage directly with external counter parties and advisors during diligence, representing Lilly's commercial perspective with authority

Minimum Qualifications:

+ Bachelor's or advanced degree in a scientific field

+ 10+ years in pharmaceutical or biotech commercial strategy, BD analytics, market research, or strategic forecasting

Preferred Qualifications:

+ Master's degree

+ Meaningful exposure beyond a single therapeutic area

+ Demonstrated track record…