Supervisor, Actuarial Predictive Modeling

Overview

We are seeking a driven, inventive, and thoughtful actuarial candidate to guide the adoption of complex models across multiple lines of business. This role will be a part of our Actuarial Predictive Modeling team, which is responsible for ensuring that pricing models are built with actuarial principles in mind. The role involves collaborating with underwriting management, data scientists, and other actuarial teams to build pricing models and evaluate model usage initiatives.

More specifically, the candidate will be expected to propose model experimentation ideas during development, recommend expected loss adjustments and guardrails for the final trained models, communicate the benefits and concerns of various technical modeling choices, and influence management decisions related to predictive model usage. This is a supervisory position overseeing one or more members of the Actuarial Predictive Modeling team, with a strong emphasis on people management and team leadership.

The candidate will guide staff members in both everyday project work and long‑term professional development, effectively communicate with technical and non‑technical audiences, own actuarial documentation, play an active role in model filings, and help drive continuous improvements in team workflows.

• Collaborate with various teams to understand, develop, and implement predictive models for pricing, portfolio management, and planning purposes.
• Ensure appropriate data adjustments and assumptions are applied during model development.
• Challenge the model and communicate its strengths and weaknesses to stakeholders.
• Validate models for their intended purpose and establish usage guardrails.
• Drive decisions and alignment around model rollout, monitoring, and addressing potential misuse.
• Provide timely support for model filings as needed.
• Maintain positive collaboration with business and stakeholders, promptly resolve inquiries and requests, and communicate effectively to ensure transparency and common understanding of goals and prioritization.
• Provide input on cross‑departmental steering committees for strategic projects.
• Maintain an up‑to‑date understanding of the insurance landscape, emerging trends, data science concepts, and new technologies impacting pricing models.
• Foster a strong risk management culture by maintaining model documentation, managing change management processes, and adhering to established model governance policies and best practices for data and code management.
• As a supervisor, work closely with junior staff to oversee the development of professional skills, elevate technical and actuarial knowledge, and guide projects to successful and timely completion.
• Develop and enhance team processes to be effective, repeatable, and scalable.
• Serve as an actuarial modeling expert by providing technical model support and relevant training to other actuaries and underwriters within the organization.

• Bachelor's degree in Actuarial Science, Mathematics, or a related field.
• 5+ years of actuarial pricing experience, ideally in small commercial insurance.
• ACAS or FCAS designation and in good standing with the Casualty Actuarial Society.
• Strong data exploration and manipulation skills, ideally in SQL, R, or Python.
• Experience working with Git.
• Solid understanding of statistical methods applied to insurance data, with the ability to identify and articulate data and modeling issues.
• Experience with predictive models for Pricing including understanding of assumptions, interpretation of results, and standard model evaluation techniques.
• Experience with modern machine learning technologies such as GBM.
• Experience managing, supervising, or mentoring team members.
• Proven ability to build consensus and drive large‑scale projects to conclusion.
• Ability to build a sense of trust and rapport that creates an effective workplace.
• Excellent problem‑solving skills and attention to detail.
• Demonstrated ability to experiment with and learn new technologies.

Expected salary range: $75K-$165K/year. Salaries are based upon a wide range of factors considered in making the compensation decision, including candidate skills, experience, education and training, the scope and responsibilities of the role, as well as market and business considerations.

AmTrust Financial Services offers a competitive compensation package and excellent career advancement opportunities. Our benefits include:
Medical & Dental Plans, Life Insurance (including eligible spouses & children), Health Care Flexible Spending, Dependent Care, 401k Savings Plans, and Paid Time Off.

AmTrust strives to create a diverse and inclusive culture where thoughts and ideas of all employees are appreciated and respected. Diversity is a business imperative, and we are committed to attracting, retaining, and developing the best talent available.