Prediction Markets Trader

A proprietary trading and investment firm focused on prediction markets and event-driven opportunities is seeking a highly analytical and intellectually curious Prediction Markets Trader to join its growing team. The firm combines rigorous research, probabilistic thinking, and disciplined execution to identify and capitalize on opportunities across a broad range of markets.

This role is ideal for individuals who enjoy making forecasts, evaluating uncertainty, and developing an edge in markets where information, probabilities, and timing matter.

Key Responsibilities

• Research and analyze prediction markets across politics, economics, business, technology, sports, and current events.
• Develop independent forecasts and probability assessments for market outcomes.
• Identify mispriced opportunities and execute trades in accordance with established risk management guidelines.
• Monitor breaking news, market developments, public data, and other information that may impact event probabilities.
• Track positions, evaluate performance, and document investment theses.
• Collaborate with team members to discuss forecasts, challenge assumptions, and improve decision-making processes.
• Build and refine research methodologies, models, and tools to improve forecasting accuracy.
• Maintain discipline in position sizing, risk management, and capital allocation.

Qualifications

• Strong analytical, quantitative, and critical-thinking skills.
• Demonstrated interest in prediction markets, trading, investing, forecasting, or decision-making under uncertainty.
• Ability to synthesize information from multiple sources and reach independent conclusions.
• Excellent attention to detail and commitment to intellectual honesty.
• Strong written and verbal communication skills.
• Ability to work effectively both independently
• Experience trading prediction markets, financial markets, sports betting, poker, or other probability-driven environments.
• Background in finance, economics, mathematics, statistics, computer science, data science, political science, or a related field.
• Demonstrated ability to make accurate forecasts or profitable trading decisions.
• Understanding of probability theory, expected value, market dynamics, and risk management principles.