Remote | Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk

About the job Remote
- Local Political Expert
- Elections Forecasting & Political Risk - $150-$250/hour

We are sharing a specialised consulting opportunity for experienced U.S. political analysts with deep state-level expertise in elections, polling, forecasting, and political-risk analysis to contribute to advanced AI evaluation and research projects.

Selected professionals will author point-in-time political reports based on fixed evidence cutoffs, document contemporaneous analytical judgments, assess polling and probability-based forecasts, and review AI-generated political analysis against professional research standards. The work is designed for practitioners with direct experience analysing live U.S. races and specific state political environments.

• Author political reports using only information available at a stated evidence cutoff
• Analyse elections, polling developments, and political-risk events without hindsight
• Document the reasoning an informed analyst could have applied at that time
• Separate contemporaneous information from later developments
• Maintain disciplined sourcing and chronology throughout each assignment

• Assess polling data relevant to current or recent U.S. statewide races
• Document directional judgments regarding polling trends and race dynamics
• Analyse probability-based forecasts and market-implied political odds where required
• Explain the assumptions underlying analytical conclusions
• Apply strong polling literacy to uncertain and evolving electoral environments

• Apply detailed knowledge of specific states, electorates, candidates, and local political environments
• Analyse Senate, gubernatorial, and other statewide contests
• Incorporate relevant state-level political and electoral context
• Evaluate developments based on direct familiarity with the races being covered
• Distinguish locally meaningful signals from broader national political trends

• Explain mechanisms through which political events may affect electoral or market-related outcomes
• Assess how new information could alter contemporaneous political expectations
• Analyse event significance using clearly documented causal reasoning
• Identify relevant uncertainties and competing interpretations
• Produce structured analysis suitable for research and model-evaluation workflows

• Review model-generated political analyses against expert-authored reference work
• Assess whether outputs accurately use the information available at the stated cutoff
• Identify hindsight, data leakage, unsupported assumptions, or analytical inconsistencies
• Provide structured feedback on polling interpretation and probabilistic reasoning
• Help establish consistent standards for evaluating political-analysis quality

• Deep expertise in U.S. state-level electoral politics
• Direct experience analysing current, upcoming, or recent Senate, gubernatorial, or statewide races
• Strong knowledge of the electorate, candidates, and political environment in at least one relevant state
• Background in university political science or survey research, state or regional polling, campaign or party analytics, political-risk analysis, or comparable election-focused work
• Demonstrated experience making live judgments about polling, probabilities, or political odds
• Strong polling literacy and experience interpreting changing race conditions
• Strong causal-analysis and political-research skills
• Typically 8 years of directly relevant experience, or substantial equivalent professional experience
• National forecasting or political-risk experience is relevant when paired with deep state-specific expertise
• Strong written communication and ability to document analytical reasoning clearly
• Experience should include live U.S. electoral analysis rather than primarily retrospective commentary
• Profiles centred primarily on international politics or geopolitics without substantial U.S. race experience are outside the intended scope
• Pure communications or journalism experience without demonstrated forecasting or polling work is not sufficient for this project
• Academic experience should include analysis of live electoral contests rather than exclusively theoretical research

• Independent contractor engagement
• Remote
  - Canada and United States only
• Compensation: $150-$250/hour
• Work will involve election research, polling analysis, point-in-time forecasting,…