Remote | Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk

About the job Remote | Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk — $150–$250/hour

We are sharing a specialised consulting opportunity for experienced elections forecasters, campaign strategists, polling and statistical-methodology experts, and political-risk analysts to contribute to advanced AI evaluation and research projects focused on elections, polling, forecasting, and political-risk analysis.

Selected professionals will author point-in-time political reports using fixed evidence cutoffs, document contemporaneous probabilistic judgments, assess polling and market-implied expectations, and review AI-generated political analysis against professional research standards. The work requires demonstrated experience making live analytical judgments rather than primarily retrospective political commentary.

Key Responsibilities

Election Forecasting & Political Analysis

• Author structured political reports using a stated evidence cutoff
• Analyse election developments and changing electoral conditions
• Document contemporaneous judgments about race dynamics
• Assess information available at the time without incorporating later outcomes
• Produce clear analytical reasoning suitable for expert evaluation

Polling & Probabilistic Assessment

• Interpret polling data and relevant statistical indicators
• Evaluate directional changes in electoral expectations
• Analyse win probabilities and other probabilistic assessments where required
• Consider market-implied political odds as part of broader analytical context
• Explain assumptions and uncertainty behind forecasting judgments

Political Risk & Event Analysis

• Analyse political events with potential electoral or market implications
• Explain causal mechanisms connecting events with expected outcomes
• Distinguish material developments from weak or incidental signals
• Assess the likely direction and significance of political effects
• Document relevant uncertainties and alternative interpretations

Point-in-Time Research & Methodology

• Reason strictly from information available at the specified cutoff
• Separate observable information from assumptions and forward-looking judgement
• Avoid hindsight and information released after the relevant date
• Apply disciplined polling, forecasting, and statistical methodology
• Produce structured research that can be evaluated consistently across assignments

AI Evaluation & Research Quality

• Review model-generated election and political-risk analyses
• Compare outputs against expert-authored reference assessments
• Identify unsupported conclusions, methodological weaknesses, or misuse of polling data
• Evaluate whether probabilistic reasoning is appropriately calibrated
• Provide structured feedback supporting consistent political-analysis evaluation

Ideal Profile

• Senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling expert, statistical-methodology specialist, political-risk analyst, or comparable professional
• Demonstrated experience making live judgments about elections, polling, probabilities, or political odds
• Strong polling literacy and understanding of forecasting methodology
• Strong causal reasoning and event-analysis skills
• Typically 8 years of directly relevant experience, or substantial equivalent professional experience
• Experience covering presidential, Senate, gubernatorial, or other significant electoral contests is highly relevant
• Background in election forecasting, polling organisations, campaign analytics, decision desks, or political-risk research is valuable
• Experience analysing political developments for financial institutions, investment organisations, or specialist research teams is also relevant
• Strong written communication and ability to document analytical reasoning precisely
• Ability to distinguish contemporaneous signals from retrospective…