Lead Forecaster – Self Sufficiency and Aging and People with Disabilities; Economist

Lead Forecaster – Self Sufficiency and Aging and People with Disabilities (Economist
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The Oregon Department of Human Services is proud to be an Equal Opportunity Employer. We are guided by our Equity North Star and our vision for a positive RiSE organizational culture that advances equity and diversity. We encourage applications from members of historically underrepresented racial/ethnic groups, women, individuals with disabilities, veterans, LGBTQIA2S+ community members, and others to help us achieve our vision of a diverse and inclusive community.

The Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis (OFRA) is a shared service supporting the Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA). OFRA provides independent, objective, and transparent statewide caseload forecasts and research to support budget development, public policy, and operational planning. The office also supports cross-agency research and oversees the Integrated Client Services (ICS) Data Warehouse, which connects data across programs and agencies to support forecasting, research, decision-making, and continuous improvement.

Opportunity awaits!

Are you an experienced economist or quantitative analyst who enjoys transforming complex data into meaningful insights that inform critical decisions? Do you have a passion for forecasting, public policy, and using data to understand what may be ahead?

Summary of Duties

This position as the lead caseload forecaster is responsible for developing projections of statewide caseloads for major programs administered by the Department of Human Services. This position will be responsible for developing and modifying complex statistical models incorporating economic and demographic variables that can influence participation in means-tested programs. A successful candidate for this position must be able to explain forecast methodologies and policy issues to technical and non-technical audiences, including executive leadership, program leadership, budget staff;

financial office and legislative staff; legislators, media and members of the public. OFRA prides itself on operating in an independent, objective, and transparent manner.

Minimum Qualifications

A master's degree in economics or a related field, including applied social or biological sciences and four years experience doing predictive analytics, forecasting and related social science research; OR A Ph.D. in economics or a related field including applied social or biological sciences and one-year experience doing predictive analytics, forecasting and related social science research.

Essential Attributes

• Forecasting & Quantitative Modeling:
  Developing, validating, and refining complex forecasts, projections, statistical models, or other quantitative methodologies to identify trends and anticipate future outcomes.
• Data Analysis & Validation:
  Analyzing complex datasets, evaluating data quality and reliability, identifying trends and anomalies, and using evidence to support accurate and defensible conclusions.
• Public Policy & Caseload Analysis:
  Analyzing how legislation, policy changes, program design, economic conditions, demographic shifts, and other external factors may influence caseloads, program participation, or service demand.
• Technical Communication:
  Translating complex data, statistical methodologies, forecasts, and projections into clear and meaningful information for non-technical audiences, including executives, policymakers, program leaders, or other decision-makers.
• Independent Analytical Judgment & Problem-Solving:
  Exercising independent professional judgment to evaluate assumptions, select appropriate analytical approaches, address complex or emerging forecasting issues, and develop innovative, evidence-based solutions.

Attention all candidates! A cover letter and resume are required. Clearly describe how you meet the minimum qualifications and essential attributes in your application materials. Please include any experience you have with data analytics especially working with relational databases and/or administrative data. Your application materials will determine if you are selected to move forward in the…