Operations Research​/Systems Analyst; ORSA - Modeling and Simulation

Position: Operations Research / Systems Analyst (ORSA) - Modeling and Simulation (5403)
The Operations Research (OR) Analyst - Modeling & Simulation Focus provides advanced process modeling, simulation, statistical analysis, and predictive analytics across a Federal Agency's personnel vetting, industrial security, and counterintelligence operations. This position develops queueing models, discrete-event simulations, and predictive models that enable the Federal Agency to identify process bottlenecks, forecast operational outcomes, and transition from reactive reporting toward proactive, data-driven decision support.

** Essential

Duties & Responsibilities *
* Process Modeling & Simulation

+ Develop queueing models and discrete-event simulations to identify bottlenecks and inefficiencies within operational pipelines (personnel vetting, facility inspections, investigative workflows)

+ Analyze and recommend process improvements that reduce turnaround times while maintaining required quality and compliance standards

+ Conduct scenario analysis and what-if modeling to evaluate the impact of proposed process changes, policy modifications, or resource reallocations

+ Build simulation models that capture stochastic variation, resource constraints, and operational policies to provide realistic operational forecasts

Statistical & Predictive Modeling

+ Apply statistical analysis and risk modeling to prioritize assessments, optimize resource deployment, and identify emerging risk or threat vectors

+ Utilize advanced mathematical and statistical modeling to detect anomalies, patterns, and trends within large, complex, and disparate data sets

+ Develop predictive models that enhance the organization's ability to forecast workload, prioritize cases, and respond to emerging conditions and threats

+ Apply machine learning techniques for classification, clustering, anomaly detection, and pattern recognition in support of counterintelligence and insider threat missions

Model Validation & Analysis

+ Validate model assumptions and outputs against historical operational data and subject matter expert input

+ Conduct sensitivity analysis to understand model behavior under varying assumptions and parameter values

+ Quantify and communicate uncertainty in model predictions and recommendations

+ Document modeling methodologies, assumptions, and limitations to ensure transparency and reproducibility

Collaboration & Communication

+ Work closely with data engineering specialists to define analytical dataset requirements and ensure data suitability for modeling

+ Translate analytical outputs into objective, data-driven recommendations that support strategic and operational decision-making

+ Present complex modeling results to technical and non-technical audiences through visualizations and clear narratives

+ Participate in cross-functional team activities to maintain technical standards and share knowledge

** Required Skills/Experience*
* + 8+ years of progressive, hands-on operations research experience, including demonstrated application of queueing theory, simulation, statistical modeling, and predictive analytics to real-world operational problems

+ 3-5 years of that experience supporting DoD or Intelligence Community mission areas such as personnel vetting, industrial security (NISP), counterintelligence, or insider threat

+ Expert-level knowledge of queueing theory and discrete-event simulation, with demonstrated ability to model complex operational processes

+ Hands-on experience with simulation tools (Arena, Any Logic, Sim Py, or similar)

+ Strong foundation in statistical modeling, hypothesis testing, experimental design, and time-series analysis

+ Demonstrated, hands-on proficiency in an analytical programming language (Python, R, or SAS), including statistical and machine learning libraries

+ Proven ability to build and validate predictive models that forecast operational outcomes

+ Experience working with complex, messy real-world datasets (missing data, inconsistent formats, temporal misalignment)

+ Ability to translate analytical findings into objective, data-backed recommendations for strategic decision-making

+ Experience working in secure (classified) government environments

+ Secret clearance required (active or ability to obtain)

** Desired Skills/Experience*
* + Advanced degree in Operations Research, Applied Mathematics, Statistics, Industrial Engineering, or a related quantitative discipline

+ Familiarity with NISP, clearance adjudication processes, and/or insider threat/counterintelligence analytic frameworks

+

Experience with machine learning frameworks (scikit-learn, Tensor Flow, PyTorch) for anomaly detection and pattern recognition

+ Knowledge of Bayesian statistical methods and uncertainty quantification

+

Experience with Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic modeling

+ Familiarity with agent-based modeling

+ Model validation and verification methodologies (V&V best practices)

+ Data visualization tools (Tableau, Power BI, matplotlib, seaborn)

+ Knowledge of optimization methods (linear programming, heuristics) to better integrate with…