Modelling ​/ Forecasting Senior Analyst (Quants

Position: Modelling / Forecasting Senior Analyst (Quants)
Work Location:

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Hours:

37.5

Line of Business:

Analytics, Insights, & Artificial Intelligence Pay Details:81, CADTD is committed to providing fair and equitable compensation opportunities to all colleagues. Growth opportunities and skill development are defining features of the colleague experience  compensation policies and practices have been designed to allow colleagues to progress through the salary range over time as they progress in their role. The base pay actually offered may vary based upon the candidate's skills and experience, job-related knowledge, geographic location, and other specific business and organizational needs.

As a candidate, you are encouraged to ask compensation related questions and have an open dialogue with your recruiter who can provide you more specific details for this role.

Job Description:

Department Overview The Non-Retail Model Development (NRMD) group is part of the Model Development department within Corporate Transformation and Operations. It is responsible for methodology development related to credit risk and operational risk in non-retail Wholesale and Commercial businesses. These methodologies cover Basel III credit parameters, including PD, LGD, and EAD/UGD, regulatory and economic capital for AIRB credit risk, IFRS 9 allowances, and Risk Ratings.

Model Development is responsible for developing mathematical methodologies, building software prototypes, and working closely with other functions throughout the bank to implement system solutions.

Within this mandate, the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development team focuses on developing, enhancing, and implementing credit risk methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios, including Point-in-Time risk parameter models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting frameworks. The team partners closely with Risk, Finance, Technology, Model Validation, and Governance stakeholders to deliver robust, forward-looking credit risk solutions that support business decision-making, regulatory requirements, and risk management objectives.

Role Overview The position is in the U.S. Non-Retail Model Development group.

As a Senior Quantitative Analytics Analyst, you will contribute to the development, enhancement, monitoring, and implementation of credit risk parameter models and stress testing / forecasting methodologies for U.S. Commercial portfolios. The role supports Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and scenario-based forecasting frameworks. You will work with complex commercial credit datasets, evaluate model performance and limitations, develop scalable analytical tools, and help translate quantitative insights into clear documentation and stakeholder-ready recommendations.

This position provides excellent learning and career opportunities in a highly professional and motivated team environment, with exposure to high-impact U.S. Commercial portfolio modeling initiatives, senior stakeholders, evolving regulatory expectations, and opportunities to develop deep expertise in credit risk model development, forecasting methodologies, advanced analytics, and modern modeling technologies.

Detailed Responsibilities Support the design, development, enhancement, testing, implementation, and monitoring of Point-in-Time PD, LGD, and EAD models, CECL/IFRS 9 allowance methodologies, and stress testing / forecasting models for U.S. Commercial portfolios.

Develop and enhance credit risk stress testing and forecasting methodologies, including scenario analysis, macroeconomic driver assessment, sensitivity testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.

Conduct quantitative analysis to support model development activities, including data preparation, segmentation, feature construction, variable assessment, model estimation, calibration, benchmarking, sensitivity analysis, back-testing, attribution analysis, and impact assessment.

Build, maintain, and improve reusable analytical tools, scalable code-based workflows, and reporting capabilities to support model development, testing, monitoring, documentation, and implementation activities.

Analyze portfolio characteristics and modeling challenges associated with U.S. Commercial portfolios, including data limitations, portfolio heterogeneity, obligor concentration, economic cyclicality, low-default behavior, and expert judgment considerations where applicable.

Assess model performance through monitoring, diagnostics, sensitivity testing, back-testing, and evaluation of emerging risk drivers, and recommend enhancements where appropriate.

Prepare clear and well-structured model documentation, technical analyses, presentations, and supporting materials that explain methodology, assumptions, limitations, results, and business implications to both technical and non-technical audiences.

Support compliance with TD Model Risk Management standards, relevant regulatory expectations, and Data Governance requirements, including documentation…