Prediction Markets Trader

Jobs Locations Chicago , Greenwich , New York City , Remote

Employment type

Full-time

Department Campus , Trading

Targeted Start Date Immediate

DRW is a major Chicago-based proprietary trading firm founded in 1992 by Don Wilson, specializing in diversified, technology-driven market-making and quantitative trading across asset classes including fixed income, options, derivatives, commodities, energy, equities, FX, and cryptocurrency.

DRW is building out a dedicated prediction markets desk focused on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. As a Prediction Markets Trader
, you will develop, execute, and optimize high-conviction trading strategies in binary event contracts. You will manage a live portfolio, targeting consistent positive expectancy through market making, microstructure exploitation, cross-platform arbitrage, event-driven momentum, and statistical models. This role requires genuine, demonstrated passion for prediction markets, strong quantitative reasoning, and the ability to operate in thin, volatile, event-resolution-driven environments.

• Monitor and trade active markets in real time across Polymarket (CLOB/Gamma/Subgraph APIs) and Kalshi (FIX/Web Socket/REST).
• Execute strategies including: market making with dynamic skew, microstructure arbitrage (order‑flow and book‑imbalance sniping), cross‑platform arb, news/event momentum (sub‑second reaction), and statistical pairs/mean‑reversion.
• Develop and backtest models using historical tick data, Bayesian probability updates, NLP sentiment parsing, and ML for fair‑value estimation.
• Collaborate with engineering on low‑latency infrastructure (API integrations, order engines, anomaly detection).

• Bachelor's or higher in Quantitative Finance, Statistics, Computer Science, Economics, Mathematics, or equivalent.
• Solid foundation in probability, statistics, time‑series analysis, and Bayesian methods.
• Hands‑on experience with prediction market platforms (Polymarket and/or Kalshi APIs) or closely related domains (options, binary events, sports/event betting).
• Genuine, demonstrated interest in prediction markets — we expect you to be actively engaged with the space (personal trading, deep reading of protocols, following major resolutions, contributing to discussions, etc.). This is non‑negotiable.

• Prior profitable trading experience in prediction markets, options, or event‑driven strategies (personal or professional).
• Familiarity with blockchain/DeFi tools (ethers.js, Polygon RPC, USDC wallets).
• Experience with low‑latency systems, FIX protocol, or Web3 integrations.
• Track record of building and backtesting quantitative models with real historical data.
• Deep domain knowledge of high‑impact events (politics, macroeconomics, climate, sports).

We are especially interested in exceptionally sharp, self‑motivated individuals — including strong campus hires and new graduates — who are obsessed with prediction markets and can demonstrate clear, substantive engagement with the space. If you’ve been actively trading Polymarket/Kalshi, analyzing resolutions, building personal models, or following the ecosystem closely, we want to talk to you.

Flexible. US‑based preferred.

The annual base salary range for this position is $175,000 to $200,000 depending on the candidate’s experience, qualifications, and relevant skill set. The position is also eligible for an annual discretionary bonus. DRW offers a comprehensive suite of employee benefits including group medical, pharmacy, dental and vision insurance, 401k (with discretionary employer match), short and long‑term disability, life and AD&D insurance, health savings accounts, and flexible spending accounts.